Autocorrelation Regression Model Analysis and Selection of Cross-Border RMB Settlement From 2011 to 2020

With China's continuous opening to the outside world, changes in international environment and operation of cross-border RMB settlement system (CIPS), scale has fluctuated continuously. In response this phenomenon, authors collected sorted out total amount payments from 2011 2020 time sequence data China, then use five AR models including ARMA, GARCH(1.1), EGARCH(1.1), PARCH(1.1), CARCH(1.1) fit. The experimental results show that four autocorrelation all prove relationship, long-term trend continues grow up. According precision accuracy models, ARMA model equation is one optimal prediction equation. On basis equation, establishment VENSIM dynamics simulation model, next 10 years predicted.